We tend to do well with our UFC picks for pay-per-view events. The last time around, we went 9-for-12, hitting some big odds along the way (e.g., Jack Della Maddalena at +175). That’s great, but we think we can do even better with our predictions for the June 7 event at Newark’s Prudential Center.

So, if you’re looking for some UFC 316 picks, you’re at the right place. We’ll now analyze the most interesting matchups – Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley (main event), Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison (co-main), and Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer (feature fight) – as well as share our predictions for all other fights on the card.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 – UFC 316 Main Event Prediction

FIGHTER ODDS
Merab Dvalishvili -320
Sean O’Malley +270

This is a revenge fight, plain and simple. Sean O’Malley got rag-dolled in their first meeting, which explains why his UFC 316 odds are +250. Merab landed six takedowns and dominated top control, but Sean wasn’t 100%.

He went into that fight injured, and later complained about the light being too strong. But he kept his mouth shut at the time. Since losing the championship belt, he’s had surgery, as well as worked hard on fixing the issues that made him look weak in the first Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley fight.

There’s a reason for optimism if you’re backing Suga Sean. He’s 5 inches taller, has a 4-inch reach advantage, and has the kind of precise counterpunching that pressure-heavy wrestlers like Merab struggle against.

Expect O’Malley to switch to southpaw and start popping teeps and jabs early to keep Merab at a distance. In Round 5 of their last fight, we saw a glimpse of that, and Merab had no answer.

Merab’s never suffered a loss by KO/TKO, but there’s a first time for everything. And his first time is happening at UFC 316!

Pick
Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison – Should You Trust UFC 316 Odds?

FIGHTER ODDS
Julianna Peña +475
Kayla Harrison -650

Julianna Peña is a two-time champ, with a history of upsetting the odds. She was the betting underdog against Amanda Nunes in 2021, but she surprised the oddsmakers and won the title for the first time in her life. She was the underdog the second time she won the title – last year against Raquel Pennington.

Julianna is once again seen as the favorite, but this matchup feels different. Kayla Harrison isn’t just another striker or volume puncher. She’s a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist and former PFL champ, with an 18-1 record.

She’s big and strong, and – in our opinion – better than Peña in every aspect of MMA. And we predict she’ll show it on June 7.

Pick
Kayla Harrison in Round 1
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer – UFC 316 Main Card Prediction

FIGHTER ODDS
Kelvin Gastelum +300
Joe Pyfer -400

A year ago, Joe Pyfer broke Ngannou’s punch record on the PowerKube machine. Another proof of his power is that he’s finished 9 of 13 wins by KO. This includes a quick one over Marc-André Barriault. But he’s never fought someone like Kelvin Gastelum.

Gastelum’s fought some real killers in the past – Adesanya, Whittaker, Belfort, Bisping – who we think would do as well as Pyfer on PowerCube in their prime. They’re hard hitters, but no one managed to knock Gastelum out.

This guy’s a former NCAA wrestler, a BJJ black belt, and has a gas tank that holds up deep into Round 3. And this isn’t just another fight – this one’s personal.

Gastelum was supposed to fight Pyfer in March, but Pyfer pulled out, then went on a bizarre rant about food poisoning in Mexico. As a proud Mexican-American, Gastelum didn’t take that lightly. He wants this win more than ever, and we think that he’s got the tools to pull it off.

Pick
Kelvin Gastelum
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000

UFC 316 Picks for Remaining Fights

  • Ariane da Silva (+275) vs. Wang Cong (-350) – Wang Cong                                           
  • Mario Bautista (+155) vs. Patchy Mix (-180) – Patchy Mix                                               
  • Vicente Luque (+165) vs. Kevin Holland (-190) – Kevin Holland                                  
  • Bruno Gustavo da Silva (+410) vs. Joshua Van (-535) – Joshua Van                                        
  • Jeka Saragih (+335) vs. Yoo Joo-sang (-405) – Yoo Joo-sang                                         
  • Quillan Salkilld (-270) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+230) – Quillan Salkilld           

Wang Cong vs. Ariane da Silva is one of the best prelims on the UFC 316 card. Da Silva (nee Lipski) is in a bad spot right now. She lost two in a row, and both were lopsided. Karine Silva took her down four times, and Jasmine Jasudavicius tapped her out.

That’s eight takedowns in two fights, and now she’s facing Wang Cong – who lands 1.61 takedowns per fight and comes from a Sanda background. The Joker is also a hell of a striker, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see her knock Ariane out.

We also suspect to see a KO in the Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland fight. Although it can go either way, our pick is Holland. He’s the betting favorite, and we think it’s for a reason.

Speaking of favorites, we’re backing them in most fights. The only exception – apart from Gastelum (+300) – is Uros Medic, who we think will stop Khaos Williams. He’s got a 100% finish rate and is desperate to get a spectacular win to forget about the KO loss to Punahele Soriano, which happened after just 31 seconds.

Heidi Thomas
Heidi Thomas

Sports Writer

Heidi has shifted from general journalism to become a specialized sports writer in MMA. Writing for OffshoreSportsbooks.com, she offers detailed fight analyses and previews, focusing on niche betting markets.

mail